EU's dangerous demographic strategy

THE DEMOGRAPHIC STRATEGY OF THE EUROPEAN UNION MIGHT BE THE REASON OF ITS PROBABLE IMPLOSION

Didier Bertin - February 10, 2016

In addition to liberal policy and budgetary controls imposed on Member States, the European Union (EU) wish also to suggest them their long term demographic strategy. This strategy seems to include a substantial immigration involving a weakening of existing national identities and of the universal humanitarian values offered to world as model of progress (specific case of France). These views were expressed by the Justice and Home Affairs Council (JHA) and may have inspired the demographic policy suggested by Eurostat to be applied till 2060. The underlying target is probably to maintain a similar size number of inhabitants with the United States (US) in 2060 in applying however a quite similar policy as that of US. It must be noted that EU has no particular powers regarding the immigration and integration policies of each Member State. Such suggestions questioning of the national identity of the Member States could generate disorders and increase the extremist and racist parties that will lead to the implosion of EU.

 

EUROSTAT AND JHA COUNCIL

Eurostat has compiled statistics over the period 2010-2060 suggesting a demographic policy weakening the concept of nation within the EU. The EU is not a nation unlike the USA but a union of nations; the weakening of existing nations within the UU may not create a European nation but would certainly questions the existence of EU

EU conductive line could be the obsession to stay demographically comparable to the USA in the long run. Eurostat statistics and considerations of the JHA Council presented by Michèle Tribalat (of INED - National Demographic Studies Institute) during a symposium in 2014 speak for themselves. According to Eurostat the demographic situation of 2010 would imply without any immigration a progressive loss of 70 483 000 of Europeans by 2060 and Eurostat suggest as a solution to invite till 2060:  86 379 000 immigrants coming out of the EU.

This new population equivalent to that of today's Germany would result in a substantial change of the European identity which is not a problem for the EU as reflected taken by the JHA Council and followed by Eurostat.

The overall figures are accompanied by a detailed analysis of 10 states that make up 80% of the population of the 27 Member States in 2010 (Croatia became an EU member in 2013 and has only 4.3 million inhabitants).

EUROSTAT statistics - period: 2010 - 2060        (000)

Scenario without migration

 

2010

2060

Variation

           .%

 

EU 27

501 044

430 361

-70 483

-14,1

Germany

81 743

58 087

-23 655

-28,9

Italy

60 340

45 074

-15 267

-25,3

Portugal

10 638

8 081

-2 556

-24

Romania

21 462

16 682

-4 780

-22,3

Austria

8 375

6 563

-1 812

-21,2

Poland

38 167

31 581

-6 586

-17,3

Spain

45 989

37 583

-8 406

-18,3

Sweden

9 341

9 331

-10

-0,1

UK

62 008

63 745

1 737

2,8

France

64 714

68 156

3 442

5,3

EUROSTAT statistics - period: 2010 - 2060        (000)

NEED OF IMMIGRATION

   

%

 

EU 27

86 379

16,7

 

Italy

19 916

30,6

Spain

14 696

28,1

Austria

2 305

26

Portugal

2 185

21,3

UK

15 180

19,2

Sweden

2 195

19

Germany

8 273

12,5

France

5 568

7,6

Romania

626

3,6

Poland

1 129

3,5

 

EUROSTAT statistics - period: 2010 - 2060        (000)

SCENARIO WITH MIGRATION

 

2010

2060

Variation

           .%

 

EU 27

501 044

516 940

15 896

3,2

Germany

81 743

66 360

-15 383

-19,4

Italy

60 340

64 989

4 649

7,7

Portugal

10 638

10 266

-372

-3,5

Romania

21 462

17 308

-4 154

-19,4

Austria

8 375

8 869

493

5,9

Poland

38 167

32 710

-5 457

-14,3

Spain

45 989

52 279

6 290

13,7

Sweden

9 341

11 525

2 185

23,4

UK

62 008

78 925

16 917

27,3

France

64 714

73 724

9 010

13,9

 

EUROSTAT statistics - period: 2010 - 2060      (000)

WORKING AGE POPULATION (15-64 YEARS)

 

2010

2060

Variation %

 MIGRATION

 

WITHOUT

WITH

WITHOUT

WITH

EU 27

335 772

231 566

290 577

-31

-13,5

Germany

53 878

30 075

36 329

-44,2

-32,6

Italy

39 656

23 239

36 313

-41,4

-8,4

Portugal

7 120

4 225

5 746

-40,7

-19,3

Romania

15 004

8 867

9 288

-40,9

-38,1

Austria

5 654

3 420

5 090

-39,5

-10

Poland

27 223

16 679

17 471

-38,7

-35,8

Spain

31 371

19 125

29 171

-39

-7

Sweden

6 100

5 145

6 559

-15,7

7.5

UK

41 001

35 455

46 025

-13,5

12.3

France

41 967

38 722

42 054

-8,2

0.2

 

These Eurostat statistics seem to follow were the directions given by the JHA Council (made up of ministers of justice and home affairs of the Member States) on 19 November 2004 which stated inter alia the following principles (translated from a text in French):

"Immigration is a permanent feature of European society. If the immigrant flow is managed properly and methodically, the States will be winning at many levels. The economy social cohesion and security will be stronger with the advantage of cultural diversity. Taken together and in all Member States, these advantages will help the progress of the European process and strengthen the position of the European Union in the world. Therefore the effective management of migration by each State is in the interest of all. "

The JHA Council who naively summarizes the problems of immigration to an effective management goes even further in the work of disintegration of European national identities:

"Integration is a two-way process of mutual accommodation by all immigrants and residents of Member States.

Frequent interaction between immigrants and Member State citizens is a fundamental mechanism for integration. The organization of joint forums, intercultural dialogue, courses on immigrants and their cultures and the improving of living conditions in urban environments enhance the interaction between immigrants and European citizens.

The practice of diverse cultures and religions is guaranteed under the charter of fundamental rights and must be safeguarded, unless they are in conflict with other inviolable European rights or with national law. "

The view that emerges from the JHA Council positions and Eurostat statistics which are in line with this view emphasize a choice for the mix of cultures of immigrants with those of Europeans. The European model is no longer a reference among those of different models of immigrant populations. The chosen policy is that of multiculturalism and the disintegration of local civilizations whose limit would be only the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the EU. The fact to say that the migration would strengthen the feeling of security in Europe has been denied to the highest point in France in 2015.

The exemplary humanist model of the French Republic, the Human Rights (meaning also equal rights for men and women) and democracy could be undermined by the fact that the culture of the immigrant peoples are put on a same footing with those of the host country; the way would be open to consider that the reference to the Charter of Fundamental Rights is legally discriminatory against the uses that form the cultures of migrants.

Moreover, the experience shows that the Charter of Fundamental Rights is not actually applied because it was often not betrayed by the EU:

1-The EU has exempted the United Kingdom and Poland to apply the Charter which should be a condition for EU membership

2-The EU did not intervene to prevent Hungary and Poland today to become dictatorships.

3-The EU tends not to consider failures regarding the respect the Charter if they are not reported by the local judicial authorities which are often controlled by the Member States which do not respect it.

Other steps could have been considered as investments to cope with a reduction in the workforce or steps to support the large families. Demographic policy seems to be based to maintain in long run an equivalent size to that of US without taking into account that the power is primarily based on the GDP and GDP per capita.

The call for immigration is an honorable solution provided that the migrants integrate with existing cultural patterns of the host country.

We have seen that the successful long tradition of immigration in France was based on the principle of integration and to the opposition to multiculturalism. Now we notice that this successful principle is challenged by the reject of Republican and secular model by a part of the new generation of the last wave of immigrants up to the extent that France is living now under state of emergency for an indefinite period. State of emergency has a deterrent power against the terror perpetrated by extremists issued of the last wave of immigration or coming from outside.

PROBLEMS RELATED TO THE SOURCES OF IMMIGRATION AND TO THE WEIGHT OF THE PARTICULAR CULTURES REJECTING THOSE OF THE HOST COUNTRIES

The rise of Islamism in many Arab countries is based on a strict respect of the integral founding text of Islam whose values ​​are in direct opposition to those of the Western world: democracy, Rights of Men and Women (Human rights) who are inseparable of democracy and tolerance of otherness especially regarding Jews and Christians. We insist on women in Human rights because they are often considered as having no rights in Muslim countries.

A very large portion of Muslims are accommodated to a remote reading of the founding text more in line with reality, economic development and the quest of welfare. This tolerant Islam faces the hostility of Salafist and Wahhabi movements regarding Sunnism and of the Iranian fundamentalist Islamism since 1979 regarding Shi'ism.

Propaganda financed by extremist movements, Arab countries and Iran caricaturing conflicts in Middle East are transmitted by Internet and satellite dishes. This propaganda has convinced some of the new Muslim generations in quest for identity to return to the past i.e. to a strict reading of the founding text of Islam and to fall in the trap of fake conspiracy theories. This remoteness from the local culture prevents any possibility of social integration.  

Wars of conquest carried out by radical Islamists in Muslim or partly Muslim countries (in Middle East and Africa) currently involves a mass continuing migration of people who do not share their views, out of these countries and in particular to EU.

The USA and Russia are the leading countries fighting in Middle East the radical movements to solve the problem at its origin while the EU has a negligible role played mainly by France. This fight also causes a migration that can be expected to be temporary since population is used as a shield by the extremist.

The difficulties that France faces regarding the integration of the new generation of the last wave of migrants show that a good management does not solve everything contrary to the allegations of the JHA Council

The case of France is significant as it has the largest EU's Muslim population as compared to the other Member States. The difficulty to fully integrate some of this population and in particular some of its new generation is illustrated in the documentation contained in the French book "The lost territories of the Republic" (Les territoires perdus de la République) published in 2002 and post faced in 2015.

This book reveals that since the 1990s, a radicalization of a part of the Muslim population that has gradually increased against the values ​​of the French Republic in the place where they are taught: the "Public School". The teaching of the values ​​of the Republic is challenged in the name of those of Islam; teachers are losing their authority and are not supported by a hierarchy that applied a policy of "denial". Judeophobia which is too often part of Muslim culture is introduced in schools where Muslim pupils are in large numbers to the point that it is recommend to Jewish families to turn to private school for safety reasons. However the security remains uncertain in the streets of difficult areas and in places identified as Jewish ones. Jews only represent 0.7% of the French population reflecting more an absence than a presence and hostility towards them is thus based on persistent prejudices even in case of total absence of Jews as in the countries of Eastern Europe. Anti-Semitism (another name of Judeophobia) became a measuring tool in Europe of the lack of civilization, ethics, and education and of a collective psychological imbalance.

The difficulty of integrating a part of the Muslim population is also reflected in figures that are nevertheless "uncertain" since there are no statistics in France by ethnic or religious origin.

The number of Muslims in France would be about 4.7 million in 2008 according to Michèle Tribalat and between 5 and 10 million in 2010 according to Claude Guéant then home minister. The Washington Post reported on April 29, 2008 that Muslims represented less than 12% of the national population with an overrepresentation of about 60% in the prison system and this percentage was also mentioned by "Le Figaro" in 2014 (major French newspaper). This seems to corroborate the violence highlighted in the "Lost Territories of the Republic" and the fact that it is now often reported that French prisons are ideal recruitment centers for Jihad.

France is fighting now to preserve its republican values ​​and this has involved the hostility of some Muslim countries and of part of its own Muslim population. The military action of France against Islamism in Africa and secondarily in Middle East made of it a target of interior and external terrorism. Jews are not the sole target of terrorists but also the French population as a whole as this was shown in 2015.

 Whatever is the goodwill of some Muslim leaders in favor of the Republic they lost their power in front of the information circulating by internet and satellite dishes that support the action of the so-called "lone wolves" and they cannot be easily controlled. The police and the army may need more staff to ensure the security of the French population, one of the keys could be a return from professional army to conscript army as it is to defend the values ​​of the Republic on the French territory.

Political consequences in Europe

Islamist radicalism is a double-edged knife by its direct action and by the involved increasing success of the fascist and racist parties in the EU as the DVU and NPD (Germany), OPS (Austria), the Vlaams Belang (Belgium) the DF (Denmark), the FN (1st Party of France at the European elections of 2014), Fidesz and Jobbik (Hungary) and in Poland PIS is becoming an extremist party....

CONCLUSION

European policy in the field of demography, immigration and integration cannot be abandoned to the simplistic thoughts of EU but must remain the field of each Member State to avoid its rapid disintegration. It would be appropriate to consider that regarding immigration the world is mostly made up of peoples who do not carry extremist thoughts but are only looking for welfare.