Geopolitics-Conclusion

PLANETARY GEOPOLITICS AND  ECONOMICS TODAY

 

IX-GENERAL CONCLUSION  

 

Society for the Promotion of a European Human Rights Model

Association pour la Promotion d'un Modèle Européen des Droits de l'Homme

 

By  Didier BERTIN

July 20, 2012

 

 

Table of Contents

 

 

I-INTRODUCTION-page 7 

II - GDP - page 11

1-THE TWO WORLD LEADERS: UNITED STATES AND CHINA AND THE OTHER THIRTEEN  COUNTRIES HAVING A GDP HIGHER THAN ONE TRILLION USD -page 11

2-THE FIRST FOURTEEN COUNTRIES - INDIA EXCLUDED page 13

3-COUNTRIES HAVING A GDP INCLUDED BETWEEN ONE HUNDRED BILLION USD AND ONE TRILLION USD - page 13

4-THE OTHER HUNDRED THIRTY FOUR COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD INCLUDING INDIA-page 14

5-CASE OF THE FIRST THREE ECONOMIC LEADERS COMPARED TO THE FOURTH ONE- page 14

6-REAL WORLD AND MEDIA WORLD - PAGE 16

7-EXAMPLES OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN REAL WORLD AND MEDIA WORLD-Page 18

8-THE LIMITS OF GDP AND THE DANGERS OF ITS GROWTH - Page 44

 

III-MILITARY DETERRENCE - page 49

1-THE TWO REAL GREAT POWERS-Page 49

2-THE THREE SECONDARY POWERS page 51

3-OTHER COUNTRIES WITH ANNUAL DEFENCE BUDGET  IN EXCESS OF FORTY BILLION - page 52

4 - ISRAEL -page 55

 

IV-OIL: RISK FOR THE DEMOCRACIES - page 57

1 - MAIN NET-OIL IMPORTERS -page 57

2-ORGANIZATION OF OIL PRODUCERS AND EXPORTERS - page 58

3-ECONOMIC SITUATION OF OIL PRODUCERS AND  EXPORTERS -    page 59

4-POLITY OF OIL PRODUCERS AND EXPORTERS  - page 62

5- THE CHOICES IN THE FIELD OF ENERGY - page 65

 

V-PUBLIC DEBT-page 66

1 - KEY DATA ON PUBLIC DEBT-page 66

2- THE RISK OF OVER-INDEBTEDNESS CONCERNS ESSENTIALLY THE RICHEST COUNTRIES -page 67

3-THE PUBLIC "OVER-INDEBTED" COUNTRIES ARE MAINLY IN THE RICHEST ONES, ACCOUNTING FOR ONLY  13.9% OF WORLD POPULATION -  page 68

4- EUROPEAN UNION, EURO AREA AND PUBLIC DEBT - page 71

5- JAPAN -page  73

6 - POLICY REGARDING  PUBLIC INDEBTEDNESS-page 74

 

VI -OTHER ECONOMIC OPTIONS - page 75

1 - THE RISK OF PROTECTIONISM - page 75

2 - ECONOMIC CHALLENGES- page 76 

 

VII - PLANETARY SOCIAL DISPARTIES - page 80

1-DEFINITION-page 80

2-CALCULATION- page-80

3-GINI INDEX APPLIED TO THE PLANET-page 81

4-ANALYSIS-page 86

 

VIII-THE REASONS WHY THE EUROPEAN UNION IS NOT A GREAT POWER - Page 93

1-EU AND NATO-page 93

2-CREATION AND TREATIES - EXPANSION AND INTEGRATION, Page 96

3-THE PROBLEM OF THE APPLICATION OF THE CHARTER OF FUNDAMENTAL RIGHTS-page 98

4-THE CONSTRAINTS OF DECISION MAKING-page 100

5 - INSTITUTIONS page 101

6-THE POLITICAL ORIENTATION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION-page 108

7-INTERNATIONAL POLITICS - page 112

8-THE CASE OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS - page 113

9- THE DISPARITIES OF THE MEDIAN INCOME OF HOUSEHOLDS IN THE COUNTRIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION - page 114

10-THE NEW MEMBERS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION -page 115

11-THE LIMITS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION page 116

12-A PARTICULAR EXAMPLE OF THE RIGHTIST ROOTING OF THE EUROPEAN UNION-page 119

A-The Prague Declaration of June 3, 2008 - page 120

B-The dangerous consequences of the Declaration  of Prague and of the related Declaration of the European Parliament-page 121

k-DECLARATION - page 135

 

IX - GENERAL CONCLUSION -page 138

 

APPENDICES

1-DATA OF THE FIRST 60 COUNTRIES WITH GDP HIGHER THAN 100 BILLIONS USD AND THE REST OF THE WORLD - Pages 145 and 146 

2-DATA ON THE INDEBTED COUNTRIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION page 147 

3-DATA OF THE  EURO AREA COUNTRIES -page 148 

4-GENERAL DATA OF THE EUROPEAN UNION -page 149

 

IX-GENERAL CONCLUSION

 

1. The USA and China generate 35.4% of the sum of GDP of all countries of the world and the 191 other countries, the rest.

 

2. Fourteen countries: The USA, China, Japan, Germany, France, Brazil, UK, Italy, Russia, Canada, Spain, Australia, Mexico and South Korea,  generate a cumulative GDP of 55,924 billion USD or 75.1% of the sum of GDP of the world and represent only 2,667 million inhabitants or 38% of the world population (average GDP per capita 20 968 dollars). The other 179 countries of the world generate a cumulative GDP of 18,536 billion, or 24.9% of the sum of GDP of the world and represent  4,355 million inhabitants or 62% of the population of the word (GDP per capita average: 4,256 dollars or 21.9% of the figure of the above mentioned figure for the 14 countries)

 

3. Only five of these fourteen countries have a credible military deterrent in the international arena: The USA, China, France, the United Kingdom and Russia, but only the two major world powers have a defense budget that allows them to be heard individually. The defense budget of France which is the highest in Europe and equivalent to that of Russia, represents only 10.5% of that of the U.S.

 

4. The USA, China and Japan have a very unfair distribution of incomes and a particularly low levy rate and their governments  do not take the steps to improve this situation. The population below the poverty line of the USA, China and Japan is accordingly high, respectively 15.1%, 13.4% and 16% of their population.

The lack of  State resources in highly capitalist countries where the State plays a reduced economic role like the United States and Japan have generated substantial budget deficits and correlated public debt, to which China has escaped.

 

5. It must be also noted  that 76% of the population of the world who live in 62.3% of the countries suffer thus  of imbalanced and unfair social conditions . This is not only an economic issue but and ethical and social justice issue. This imbalance is also the product of the unique proposed model for development.

The tranches of fairer distribution of income (indexes of 23% to 35.5%) are the privileged domain of European countries: thirty five of the forty-one European countries, including twenty four of the twenty seven countries of the European Union.

Nineteen of the twenty one countries in the tranche of the fairest distribution of income (below 30%) are European and twelve of them belong to the European Union. However, these twelve countries (44% of the countries of the European Union) are with the exception of Germany, small countries and represent only 27% of the population of the European Union.

 

6. Many media outlets focus on the problems of the richest countries and in particular on their economic troubles regardless of the very substantial disparities on the planet. The information seems chosen for its announcement effect on a particular and wealthy audience and probably participates in the creation of a virtual media world away from reality.

 

7. The importance given to the GDP and specially to its growth is mainly due to the headlong rush implied by the unique economic model of wealthy countries, which is  based on deep world injustices without which it is not viable. Poverty is even considered by some rich countries as being "commercially" unfair when it challenges the privileges of the companies deprived of creativity  of  these countries.

The generalization of the economic model of the wealthy countries should, in order to provide a GDP per capita equal to the average of that of the U.S., Japan, Germany and France to the whole world population, would involve a global GDP 4.25 times higher than that of 2011 and nearly 5 times higher in 2020 given the population growth. This growth does not seem to be realistic since the planet is apparently  today, not far of its maximum level of tolerance to human economic activity.

 

8. The dependence of the economies of democracies on oil which is a finite resource, gives disproportionate power to seventeen producing and exporting countries even more annoying than fifteen of them are dictatorships, absolute monarchies or perverted or very unstable democracies. Each producing country, alone or in association, may affect the price of oil in a manner which can be devastating for the democracies.

 

9. Wealthy countries make much noise about the public debt but it only concerns themselves.  Eighteen countries are over-indebted (debt greater than 60% of GDP) out of the 193 countries of the world; these eighteen countries have accumulated  75.7% of the global public debt and represent only 13.9% of the population of the planet. They have an averaged GDP per capita average of 39,978 dollars as compared to  10,604 dollars on average for the rest of the world.

Wealthy countries should rectify their situation by increasing their levy rate in proportion of  GDP and by applying their resources equitably in order to enhance solidarity between citizens by a fairer income distribution.

The European Union, which represents only 7.2% of the global population has accumulated  29.5% of the public debt of the world.

 

10. In order to maintain their economies, wealthy countries should focus on the development of new industries with high added value and in line with the level of education that they  claim to have.

The layoffs, outsourcing and attacks against the social gains are ways for companies of these countries to safeguard the performance of a production process that they can neither improve nor renew.

Rich countries are tempted to protect the privileges of their businesses by using protectionism by claiming that "poverty is commercially unfair." The retreat into protectionism would reduce the purchasing power in the importing rich countries as in the poor competing countries.

Rich countries should instead participate in improving the living condition of the workers of poor countries by requesting before any transaction, social audits, which must be  reliable, complete and satisfactory.

 

11. The present crises show the inadaptable character of capitalism to the changing current circumstances and requires a return to an expanded role of the State, which cannot be reduced to give incentives without guarantee of result, but should be directly involved in key companies in order to protect citizens against any major public disorders that these companies may cause.

This internal control is particularly pressing with regard to banks due to the inefficient control of the central banks as this is shown by the permanent financial scandals  and to the disproportionate and tragic consequences of the errors of the Banks sometimes due to their embezzlements or to  those of their staff. The banking business is not a normal commercial activity that can be left to private initiative without a stringent control.

 

12. The race for economic growth is neither realistic nor fair because it essentially offers welfare to fourteen countries on one hundred ninety-three. A new model based on real needs and  appropriate  supply of durable goods must be defined that will put us away from the race for growth and which, will be therefore more readily generalizable.

 

13. The resurgence of state religions or states dominated by religion is a dead end for the citizens of those countries that have real needs that cannot be satisfied with the hope of a better life after death by focusing on mythologies of another age and need on the contrary a rational administration far from theological rules. This obscurantist approach is unfortunate because it justifies everything, intolerance, violence, inequality between citizens, discrimination between women and men in the name of the hazardous certainties of a few.

 

14. The European Union, as such, does not challenge the dominance of the two great powers since it is neither a nation nor a true federation. The European Union, which does not its own military deterrent is actually integrated into NATO (twenty one out of the twenty seven countries of the European Union are members of NATO) overwhelmingly dominated by the USA, whose  defense budget represents 64% of the sum of the defense budgets of all the NATO members. The European Union is not a great power and appears to be rather an association of countries centered on the economy and firmly politically rooted to the right .

The European Union seems  difficultly in a position  to impose its ethics  to its own member states e.g.  the Presidency of the European Union was given  from January to June 2011 to a quasi-dictatorship (Hungary) led by one of the vice presidents of the largest European political party (EPP).

Given the political consciousness and identity of the populations of each member state, an excessive transfer of political power to an elected  supranational body, such as the European Parliament, would oblige all Member States to suffer a doctrinaire rightist policy.

The current  political domination of the European Union is shown for example  by the current composition of the European Parliament which comprises 63% of Conservatives MEPs for only 37% of progressive parties MEPs. The European Parliament has no real power and acted regarding legislation under the control de facto of the Council of the European Union. In this latter  near 70% of the votes are held by the conservatives parties.

 

15. The rightist rooting of the European Union and the inconsistence of its ethics were especially visible in the declaration of the European Parliament dated of 23 September 2008, supporting the Prague Declaration dated of 3 June 2008.

In fact this Declaration supported a rewriting of History opacifying and obfuscating the magnitude of Nazi crimes at the expense of the memory of their victims in order to dramatize those of Communism for evident political reasons since, among others and against the evidence of historical facts, it utilizes a rough  and trivial mathematical equation unacceptable in the field of History.

In addition, the proposal to commemorate both the remembrance of the victims of  Nazism and Communism,  the day of the anniversary of the signing of the precarious Ribbentrop-Molotov agreement is totally meaningless, and is insulting and outrageous  for the victims of Nazism.

The USSR suffered 84% of the losses of the all the allied armies to free Europe from Nazism , this should be kept in mind as well as the Agreements of Versailles, Riga, Munich and Yalta.